A 77.5%-sell-through market where the badge on the engine cover matters more than anything else: sub-$50k for a tired 2006 NA car, $130k+ for a 27-off S260 Sport, and a soft -5.7% drift over the last twelve months.
Across 111 completed BaT auctions the Exige has sold 86 times (77.5% sell-through) at a median of $58,000 and a mean of $61,063, with the middle half of the market between $48,313 and $70,375 and a full range of $31,750 to $132,321. The long trend has been up — median by year runs $43,000 (2019), $51,875 (2020), $57,033 (2021), $62,000 (2022), $69,000 (2023) — but it has flattened and slightly reversed: $62,500 in 2024, $70,000 in 2025, $68,000 across five 2026 sales, and a trailing-twelve-month median of $66,000 against $70,000 the year before, i.e. -5.7%. This is not a collapsing market; it is a market where the very good cars have re-rated hard and the ordinary ones have not moved.
The spread is enormous and it is almost entirely explained by variant and mileage, not condition. The top of the book is the S260 Sport (27 imported for 2010): 11k-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 260 Sport at $132,321, 6k-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 260 Sport at $96,000, 12k-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 260 Sport at $96,000, and 2010 Lotus Exige S 260 Sport at $81,158. Next comes the Final Edition — 2011 Lotus Exige S 260 Final Edition Matte Black made $111,111 in December 2025, a record a commenter flagged as such, while 2,800-Mile 2011 Lotus Exige S 260 Final Edition failed to sell at $102,500. Below that the S240 clusters $60k–$91k depending almost purely on odometer: 9k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 at $90,909, 1,900-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 at $88,500, 13k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 at $83,500, versus 27k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 at $62,000 and 48k-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 240 unsold at $55,000. The 2007–08 Exige S sits $49k–$78k, and the 2006 naturally aspirated car $46k–$78k.
The counterintuitive finding is that the genuine race cars are the cheap end. 2007 Lotus Exige Cup 255 — a documented 2010 SCCA World Challenge Long Beach class winner — brought $40,000. 2,300-Mile 2007 Lotus Sport Exige Cup 255, with 1,420 indicated miles, brought $43,043 and was called a "steal" in-thread. Original-Owner 2007 Lotus Exige Cup 255 failed at $32,750. No title, motorsport VIN, expired safety kit and federal seizure risk cost roughly half the value of an equivalently rare road car. The V6 Cups are better regarded but still constrained: 2013 Lotus Exige S V6 Cup at $91,500 in 2024, and a second 2013 Lotus Exige S V6 Cup that missed reserve at $63k and closed post-auction at $64,000 in June 2026.
The 25 no-sales tell the second story. Reserves are routinely set $10k–$30k above where the room is. 2,300-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S stalled at $72,000 with 2,300 miles; 16k-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S stalled at $48,000 with a commenter insisting it was "20-30k below where the market is at"; 9k-Mile 2009 Lotus Exige S 260 with claimed Seinfeld provenance stalled at $93,500. Meanwhile no-reserve cars consistently clear: No Reserve: 1,700-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 240 at $73,240 despite a cracked-block history, No Reserve: 24k-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S at $53,500, No Reserve: 36k-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S at $53,400. The published colour medians (Phantom Black $63,000 n=7, Chrome Orange $62,000 n=7, Storm Titanium $58,075 n=8) are too confounded by variant mix to be read as colour premiums on their own — but Chrome Orange cars repeatedly set records within their own variant, which is the more useful signal.
11k-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 260 Sport made $132,321 — the top sale in the dataset — while 12k-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 260 Sport made $96,000 and 6k-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 260 Sport made $96,000. 2011 Lotus Exige S 260 Final Edition Matte Black made $111,111. Compare 13k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 at $83,500 and 16k-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 240 at $63,000. Commenter Rickn on the 6k car: 'only 27 S260 Sports imported to North America in 2010'; henrymfisher and mr_burns repeatedly police the spec distinction in these threads.
Within the S240 line the curve is stark: 9k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 $90,909, 1,900-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 $88,500, 13k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 $83,500, 9k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 $77,500, then 27k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 $62,000 and 48k-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 240 unsold at $55,000. Commenter 93FDguy on 6k-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 240: 'finding low-mileage ones like this is getting extremely tough.'
2007 Lotus Exige Cup 255 — genuine factory Cup with a documented 2010 SCCA World Challenge GTS win at Long Beach — sold for only $40,000; FB73tii pointed out the 12th VIN digit 'H' denotes a Motorsport VIN that 'cannot be legally registered in the US.' 2,300-Mile 2007 Lotus Sport Exige Cup 255 with 1,420 miles brought $43,043, called a 'STEAL' by lotushack. Original-Owner 2007 Lotus Exige Cup 255 didn't meet reserve at $32,750. On 2013 Lotus Exige S V6 Cup, jcarr warned that for federal purposes 'it isn't a fine, it's seizure and destruction.'
18k-Mile 2006 Lotus Exige (Chrome Orange, 1 of 51) made $75,000 — qU1Z called it a 'record breaking non-supercharged exige bid war' — and 11k-Mile 2006 Lotus Exige (Chrome Orange) made $78,000, with winning bidder Murcime admitting 'I paid a premium, for sure.' 12k-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S, 1 of nine in British Racing Green, made $78,000. 21k-Mile 2006 Lotus Exige in Krypton Green (11 built) made $52,000 against typical NA money. By contrast 10k-Mile 2006 Lotus Exige in Storm Titanium needed a post-auction deal at $62,500.
Supercharged 2006 Lotus Exige with a full BOE REV 400TVS kit and dyno sheet made $65,000; Supercharged 2006 Lotus Exige with BOE REV300 and a Lotus race-team technician's service file made $58,000; Original-Owner Modified 2006 Lotus Exige, turbocharged and MoTeC-managed, made $70,500 on 1,500 miles, prompting Just_Ed to ask 'And only unmodified ones command a premium?' On 13k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 the Reverie carbon package and Composite Worx seats accompanied an $83,500 result.
Supercharged 2006 Lotus Exige failed to sell at $45,000 with an undiagnosed CEL and no cat; TheVintageCarGuy: 'You are asking bidders to take a huge leap of faith by not providing clarity as to the engine alert.' Original-Owner Supercharged 2006 Lotus Exige sold for only $46,780 because the reflashed ECU cannot pass CA smog. On No Reserve: Supercharged 2006 Lotus Exige ($51,000), NerdLifeTillIDie called the seller's legality claim 'wildly misleading.' 48k-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 240 stalled at $55,000 with a withheld P0420.
27k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 sold for $62,000 with a 7-inch spiderweb crack and an undisclosed prior repaint; Baddesign summarised the estimator: '$5-$10k to repair, $15k to replace.' 10k-Mile 2006 Lotus Exige failed at $47,000 with unrepaired 2016 rear-clam damage; jaysporsches warned 'a full respray is likely if you want it to look factory.' 16k-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S sold at $61,150 with an undisclosed 2012 tyre-barrier rear-clam replacement.
Supercharged 2006 Lotus Exige failed at $45,000 with four seller replies across 85 comments; neltel's post-mortem: 'Everyone trying to figure out the details of the car... the seller only responded 4 times… all that to not meet reserve.' No Reserve: 24k-Mile Modified 2007 Lotus Exige S still made $62,000 but Pipedreamer44 wrote 'the seller is MIA... Seems fishy.' Contrast the exhaustively documented 32k-Mile 2006 Lotus Exige, where the seller pulled the valve cover on request and got $52,525 for a 32k-mile NA car.
No Reserve: 1,700-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 240 cleared $73,240 despite a disclosed cracked block, replacement short block and a hidden clamshell collision. No Reserve: 24k-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S made $53,500 and No Reserve: 36k-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S $53,400. Against that, at least eight reserve cars in this sample died between $40,000 and $102,500. Sell-through overall is 77.5%.
| Colour | Median | Cars |
|---|---|---|
| Phantom Black | $63,000 | 7 |
| Chrome Orange | $62,000 | 7 |
| Storm Titanium Metallic | $58,075 | 8 |
On 27k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 the seller discovered a prior repaint only seven years into ownership when an estimator 'immediately pointed out orange peel on rear clam.' 10k-Mile 2006 Lotus Exige carries unrepaired 2016 clam damage; jaysporsches: 'It will be nearly impossible to match once the clamshell gets sorted.' 11k-Mile 2006 Lotus Exige had the rear clam repainted 'due to cracks in the paint.' 2013 Lotus Exige S V6 Cup shows cracks the seller attributes to 'chassis/body flex.'
Check: Get the car on a lift and inspect the rear clam around the wing mounts, tail-light surrounds and the lettering; look for orange peel and mismatched texture rather than paint-meter readings (the meter is useless on composite). Ask for body-shop invoices, not Carfax — Carfax showed clean on several cars with documented clam replacement. Budget $5-10k to repair, $15k to replace.
2008 Lotus Exige S 240 ($74,000) had its cluster replaced at 5,727 miles with the odometer reset; GIANINI: 'If this was a Ferrari Dino, a replaced cluster would be a worry. Since it is a Lotus, with a known issue and the right documentation... it is not the least bit of a worry.' bi-polar_with_cars on 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 (RNM $56,000): 'ALL of the stock clusters generally need repaired or replaced at some time as heat cycles degrade some of the electrical connections.' Modified 2006 Lotus Sport Exige Cup 240 has no odometer at all.
Check: Ask whether the cluster is original. If not, demand the dealer odometer sticker/door-jamb label and the invoice stating mileage at replacement. Cross-check against Carfax service entries. An AiM MX2E retrofit is normal and, per specialists, not a value hit — an undocumented reset is.
On No Reserve: 1,700-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 240 the 2017 invoices show a worn intake cam and a cracked block at under 1,700 miles; nonuniform: 'Cracked block, worn cam and suspension issues at just under 1700 miles. So, it saw some hard track time at some point. Definitely affects my bidding.' On No Reserve: 41k-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S, vteclol asked whether cams had been inspected; the seller admitted they had not. On 32k-Mile 2006 Lotus Exige, AlanRhodes reported owning three 2ZZ Lotuses with cam wipe, while Just_Ed argued the issue is 'blown out of proportion' and usually accompanied by a CEL — the seller settled it by removing the cover.
Check: Pull the valve cover and photograph both cams — a seller who refuses is telling you something. Compression/leakdown on any supercharged car over 30k miles. Note the failure can occur without a CEL.
On 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 ($74,000), henrymfisher: 'I would replace both rear toe links immediately. This car has the original oem ball joint style links. They break and that can be a deadly accident potentially.' On No Reserve: 41k-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S, Robocop305 flagged the InoKinetic toe link kit as evidence of 'a very well sorted exige.' On 2007 Lotus Exige S ($56,500), LamboRN listed 'radiator, toe links, shifter... literally the only complaints about these cars.'
Check: Look under the rear for InoKinetic DSbrace / Sector111 / Nitron toe-pin kit hardware. If the car still has the original ball-joint links, treat it as a $1-2k immediate job and bid accordingly.
On 10k-Mile 2006 Lotus Exige, sgtiger: 'plan on doing the radiator at some point in the future, the plastic end caps don't last forever. It's a clamshell off job.' On 13k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240, Dave_Car_Guy: 'The earlier Exige S models were notorious for heat soak when driven hard on track.' On Modified 2006 Lotus Sport Exige Cup 240, Davis_944 quantified it on a Cup 255: 252 whp on a cold day falling 'to 210whp and high IATs' within one lap.
Check: Ask whether the radiator is still the OEM plastic-end-tank unit — replacement is a clamshell-off job. On S/S240 cars look for side-scoop-to-intercooler ducting and an uprated intercooler if you intend to track it.
On No Reserve: Supercharged 2006 Lotus Exige, NerdLifeTillIDie: 'the only smog legal supercharger kits are the Lotus OEM kits... This is wildly misleading.' Original-Owner Supercharged 2006 Lotus Exige was explicitly restricted to out-of-state buyers because the ECU is reflashed. On 2011 Lotus Exige S 260 Final Edition Matte Black the seller reported 'the OBDII would not connect' at the California smog test. Supercharged 2006 Lotus Exige failed to sell at $45,000 with an undiagnosed light.
Check: Pull the codes yourself before bidding. Confirm the car has a current smog certificate in the state you'll register it. Ask specifically whether the stock ECU, cat and exhaust are included — several sellers had the pipes but not the ECU.
18k-Mile 2006 Lotus Exige: third-party inspector Yavuz914 listed 'a saggy headliner' among only three flaws. No Reserve: 1,700-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 240 admitted headliner sag at 1,700 miles. On Supercharged 2006 Lotus Exige ($58,000) the blower motor was dead and IDEngineer diagnosed 'r-pack terminal corrosion' as the likely cheap fix. On No Reserve: 37k-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 240, multiple owners confirmed window rattle is standard; mr_burns noted water-tightness issues are 'common on hand-built Lotus cars.'
Check: Roof liner and the trim above the belts (sellers regularly duck requests for these photos). Run all HVAC fan speeds. Wet the car and check the boot. None of it is expensive; all of it is negotiable.
On Original-Owner Modified 2006 Lotus Exige, dmeyers8: 'These gearboxes are known to be a bit fragile at much over stock HP. If this is running 300+, I would recommend the new owner have at least 3rd and 4th gears upgraded' — the seller detuned from 400 to 340hp for exactly that reason. 2010 Lotus Exige S 260 Sport ($81,158) needed three transaxle interventions in 16 months: 4th gear and synchros in July 2018, then 3rd gear and side carrier bearings in November 2019.
Check: If the car makes materially over stock power, ask whether 3rd/4th have been upgraded (JUBU, SSC) and whether the box has been apart. Check shift quality for 2nd- and 3rd-gear crunch on a cold box.
On 2,300-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S (unsold at $72,000), umamialex: 'the tires are the original '06s. Make sure to budget in new ones!' and gmonkee: 'That rubber is very old (hard) by now and lift throttle over-steer is very real in the Elise.' 1,900-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 sold at $88,500 still wearing tyres dated week 42 of 2007. On Original-Owner 2007 Lotus Exige Cup 255 the seller conceded 'the harnesses and fire bottle are both expired.'
Check: Read the DOT date codes in the photos before you bid. On a preservation car, budget $1,500-2,000 for tyres immediately; on any car with harnesses, check the expiry tags.
On 2008 Lotus Exige S Club Racer (unsold at $56,111), i.r.n00b — owner of #2 of 20 — stated 'neither seat is the original for this car'; aronparsons walked away citing 'too many things not quite right with it... for being a limited edition model.' On Original-Owner 2008 Lotus Exige S Club Racer the seller admitted 'the original seats are no longer with the car' and mislabelled Tecnocraft seats as Tillett. On 2010 Lotus Exige S 260 Sport, 93FDguy identified modified Elise seats in place of the exclusive carbon HANS-approved items. On 13k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 the seller conceded 'none of the original parts were retained by the previous owner.'
Check: For Club Racers and S260 Sports, verify the seats against the registry — the correct items are embroidered/carbon and nearly unobtainable. Ask for the Certificate of Vehicle Provenance and confirm build number. Check whether original wheels, muffler and wing came with the car.
On No Reserve: 24k-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S, 6TVRs forced verification and then wrote 'thank you for CONFIRMATION that you have a factory LSD, a non standard option.' On Original-Owner 2008 Lotus Exige S Club Racer, 6TVRs caught the error — 'it was not standard on these' — and BaT removed the claim. On 1,700-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 the sticker eventually proved the car is open-diff. On 18k-Mile 2006 Lotus Exige, qu1Z deduced non-LSD from tyre wear after the seller said 'I don't know.'
Check: Photograph the transaxle sticker beneath the shifter cables. A part number ending 'LAP' indicates factory LSD; 'F30AP-Z' is open. Do not accept a seller's assumption.
Driver-grade, road-legal, sorted: $48k-$58k. That buys a 2006 NA car or a 2007-08 Exige S with 25k-50k miles, some cosmetic honesty and known history — see No Reserve: 36k-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S at $53,400, No Reserve: 24k-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S at $53,500 and 32k-Mile 2006 Lotus Exige at $52,525. Expect to spend $3-5k on tyres, toe links, a radiator and a headliner. Strong car: $62k-$80k. A low-mileage S240 with documented service and no clam stories, or an unusually good NA car in a rare colour — 16k-Mile 2010 Lotus Exige S 240 at $63,000, 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 at $74,000, 12k-Mile 2007 Lotus Exige S at $78,000, 13k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 at $83,500. Best-in-class: $90k-$135k, and only for the top variants. Sub-10k-mile S240s land $88k-$91k (1,900-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 at $88,500; 9k-Mile 2008 Lotus Exige S 240 at $90,909); Final Editions $100k-$111k; S260 Sports $96k-$132k. Club Racers are their own market at $68k-$81k, and utterly dependent on the original seats being present. Track-only Cup cars, however rare, sit at $32k-$46k for the four-cylinders and $64k-$91k for the V6 Cups — buy one only if you already own a trailer and a paddock.

The high-water mark for the model, 2.3x the all-time median. The only 2010 S260 Sport in Chrome Orange per the registry, 11k miles, full factory carbon package, 50-state smog legal. Even existing owner EldonZ recalibrated in the thread: 'I've always said I wouldn't talk to anyone about selling mine for less than 100K and this is proving that number maybe a little low.'

Record for a Final Edition, #5 of 25, and achieved despite 19,056 miles, a retrofitted AIM cluster, a Carfax mileage error, an unresolved OBD-II/California smog problem and a wrap only months old over unverified matte paint. A top-tier dealer's reputation and a well-received livery carried it; 6TVRs conceded 'I almost dare say the matte black livery would not warrant bids this high!'

A factory Cup 255 with 1,420 genuine miles, FIA cage, air jacks and AP Racing brakes for less than a 41k-mile road Exige S. No title, no dyno, no compression figures, and a seller who had misread km as miles. lotushack: 'Deal? He got a STEAL!!!' This is the clearest evidence that titles, not rarity, set the floor on this model.

A genuine Cup 255 with a documented 2010 SCCA World Challenge GTS pole and win at Long Beach — SOSLLC1 called it 'grail-level stuff for Lotus fans' — sold for less than a scruffy road car. Motorsport VIN, no odometer, a missing diffuser, an unanswered challenge to its '255' designation, and a 13-year documentation gap did the damage.

One of 26 US 2010 S240s, one of seven in Phantom Black, sold on just four bids at $60,500 when informed owners expected $70k+. acm388: 'Wow, thought for sure this would be at least $10k over this.' Seized alignment points left unfixed, brakes that 'require pumping to gain pedal feel,' an LSD claim that had to be retracted and an October listing date all conspired.

A record for a naturally aspirated Exige — qu1Z called it a 'record breaking non-supercharged exige bid war' — driven by original ownership, Chrome Orange (1 of 51), original Star Shield and a third-party in-person inspection by Yavuz914 that found only three flaws. The winning bidder openly said he was 'happy to overspend.'

Failed to sell at $93,500 despite being a pre-facelift S260 Sport in unique Kawasaki Lime Green with claimed Jerry Seinfeld provenance. No documentation for the celebrity claim, full PPF preventing paint inspection, a racing harness on a car said never to have been tracked, and an inferred $100k+ reserve. Provenance you can't paper is provenance you can't monetise.

A 1,700-mile, one-owner, stock S240 that made only $69,000 — well under the $77.5k-$90.9k band its peers achieved — because the oil had not been changed in roughly 14 years. gusbat: 'if the seller had invested about 3000 bucks in yearly maintenance... he would have netted another 15 grand.' Preservation without maintenance is not preservation.
The Exige is a two-tier market and you should decide which tier you're in before you bid. If you want to drive it, the value is a 2007-08 Exige S or an early S240 at $55k-$70k with documented toe links, a replaced radiator, an honest clamshell and a seller who answers questions in the thread — the platform's mechanicals are genuinely robust (owners in these threads report 90,000-mile cars with 'ZERO mechanical issues outside of consumables'), and the money goes into bodywork and cooling, not engines. If you want an appreciating asset, only the S260 Sport, the Final Edition and, at a lower level, the Club Racer have shown real separation, and you will pay $90k-$132k with no discount for stories. Avoid the middle trap: a paint-corrected, PPF-wrapped, half-documented low-mileage car at $80k+ is where the last twelve months' -5.7% has bitten hardest. And treat any track-only Cup car as a hobby purchase, not an investment — the record says the market discounts a missing title by roughly half regardless of what the car won.
These are patterns, not findings. A public auction record cannot show intent, and everything below has ordinary explanations — specialists and dealers bid on many cars of one model, enthusiasts run up cars they end up losing, and new accounts are usually just new. Read them as places to look closely, not as accusations.
watch Underbidder placed much of the ladder — Hmefry09 placed 7 of 19 bids (37%) and did not win. Enthusiastic losing bidders are common; a very high share is still worth reading the thread for.
watch Closing bids came almost entirely from accounts with no posting history — 8 of 8 bids in the final 15 minutes (100%) came from accounts with under 25 lifetime likes (Mika23, Hmefry09, smirts, brianh16). The typical auction for this model runs 50%, so this one is an outlier. Note the measure is weak — likes come from commenting, so a long-time bidder who never posts also scores zero.
watch Closing bids came almost entirely from accounts with no posting history — 9 of 10 bids in the final 15 minutes (90%) came from accounts with under 25 lifetime likes (DreamWagon89, Mezger911). The typical auction for this model runs 50%, so this one is an outlier. Note the measure is weak — likes come from commenting, so a long-time bidder who never posts also scores zero.
watch Underbidder placed much of the ladder — Dachshound placed 10 of 25 bids (40%) and did not win. Enthusiastic losing bidders are common; a very high share is still worth reading the thread for.
watch Closing bids came almost entirely from accounts with no posting history — 11 of 11 bids in the final 15 minutes (100%) came from accounts with under 25 lifetime likes (brittstracner, Dachshound, njay). The typical auction for this model runs 50%, so this one is an outlier. Note the measure is weak — likes come from commenting, so a long-time bidder who never posts also scores zero.
watch Underbidder placed much of the ladder — heathenguy placed 4 of 13 bids (31%) and did not win. Enthusiastic losing bidders are common; a very high share is still worth reading the thread for.
watch Closing bids came almost entirely from accounts with no posting history — 6 of 6 bids in the final 15 minutes (100%) came from accounts with under 25 lifetime likes (DripMachine, lharmon, casualcompete, Jolo914). The typical auction for this model runs 50%, so this one is an outlier. Note the measure is weak — likes come from commenting, so a long-time bidder who never posts also scores zero.
watch Underbidder placed much of the ladder — Vitor19 placed 9 of 27 bids (33%) and did not win. Enthusiastic losing bidders are common; a very high share is still worth reading the thread for.
watch Closing bids came almost entirely from accounts with no posting history — 18 of 18 bids in the final 15 minutes (100%) came from accounts with under 25 lifetime likes (Vitor19, MechanicalMaven). The typical auction for this model runs 50%, so this one is an outlier. Note the measure is weak — likes come from commenting, so a long-time bidder who never posts also scores zero.
notice Price set by two accounts trading bids — 76% of the ladder is the same two accounts alternating. This is what a genuine duel looks like too — it only matters alongside another signal.
watch Closing bids came almost entirely from accounts with no posting history — 9 of 11 bids in the final 15 minutes (82%) came from accounts with under 25 lifetime likes (Sharklub, Yolo, KolymaTales, AJ10695). The typical auction for this model runs 50%, so this one is an outlier. Note the measure is weak — likes come from commenting, so a long-time bidder who never posts also scores zero.
watch Closing bids came almost entirely from accounts with no posting history — 9 of 10 bids in the final 15 minutes (90%) came from accounts with under 25 lifetime likes (Sevenkillers, Vitor19). The typical auction for this model runs 50%, so this one is an outlier. Note the measure is weak — likes come from commenting, so a long-time bidder who never posts also scores zero.



























































