A market split three ways: documented first-generation big-blocks now clear $70-100k, well-sorted 1967-70 small-blocks and restomods land $20-58k, and everything from 1971 onward — including 50k-mile supercharged MN12s at $4,405 — is still cheap money.
Across 188 completed BaT auctions the Cougar shows a median sold price of $19,000 and a mean of $24,866, with a 25th percentile of $11,750 and a 75th of $28,500. That spread is the story: the range runs $3,900 to $157,000, and it is not a condition curve so much as a model curve. The name covers everything from a 1967 XR-7 to a 2000 front-drive coupe, plus CMC Tiffany kit conversions, so the aggregate median tells you almost nothing about the car you are actually shopping for. Sell-through is a healthy 72.9%, but the reserve-not-met pile is heavily weighted toward sellers of ordinary 1969-73 cars asking first-generation big-block money.
The trend is genuinely up. Last-12-months median is $19,763 against $14,750 the year before, +34.0%, and the 2026 partial year sits at $29,000 (n=7). That echoes the 2022 spike ($30,750 median) after the 2023-25 trough ($13,500 / $17,250 / $16,025). What changed is the mix at the top: 1968 Mercury Cougar XR7-G Hertz at $100,000, 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 428 Cobra Jet Ram Air Convertible at $86,001 and again at $78,000, 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 428 Cobra Jet Ram Air at $69,500, and two 1968-70 restomods at $58,000 apiece — Modified 1970 Mercury Cougar Eliminator and 428-Powered 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7 4-Speed. Meanwhile the ceiling for a documented but undistinguished 1969 XR-7 hardtop is roughly $24,250 (1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7).
Transmission is the single loudest variable in the analysed subset: manual median $42,000 (n=6) versus automatic $15,126 (n=36). Treat that gap with care — the manual cars are also the rare-spec cars (Q-code 4-speed convertibles, 5-speed conversions) — but the direction is unambiguous and repeated. Mileage, by contrast, is close to noise on the 1967-70 cars because five-digit odometers have rolled over on a large share of them: 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 428 Cobra Jet Ram Air Convertible showed 11,000 miles and made $78,000, while 35-Years-Owned 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7 GT 390 showed 500 miles and made $41,250. Mileage does matter on the 1978-97 cars, where 31k-45k survivors are the only ones anybody wants.
Where money is left on the table is documentation and seller conduct, not condition. Every high-water sale here carries an Elite or Deluxe Marti Report plus registry corroboration. Every conspicuous reserve-not-met in this sample pairs a thin paper trail with an absent or hostile seller: 1969 Mercury Cougar Convertible 351 (RNM at $26,266, seller told commenters 'less from people that are not' bidding), 306-Powered 1967 Mercury Cougar Fastback Conversion (RNM $28,957, seller answered nothing across 104 comments), 1978 Mercury Cougar XR-7 (RNM $9,500 after ignoring three days of requests for trunk photos). Bidders on this model are unusually well-informed — jsv, Cougar_Guy, XR7GRegistrar, Ozzybud, Mike_B_SVT, DonRush of West Coast Classic Cougars all appear repeatedly — and they price silence.
1968 Mercury Cougar XR7-G Hertz (one of 188 Hertz cars of 619 built) made $100,000; 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 428 Cobra Jet Ram Air Convertible (1 of 96, ~32 known to the registry) made $86,001 in 2024 and a second example $78,000 in 2025; 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 428 Cobra Jet Ram Air hardtop made $69,500. Against that, 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 with a 390 built to a claimed 500hp made $24,250 and 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 351 made $9,100.
1973 Mercury Cougar XR-7 Convertible Q-Code 351 4-Speed made $37,000 — nearly double the $19,525 paid for 1973 Mercury Cougar XR-7 Convertible, an automatic CJ car with a fresh rebuild. 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 Convertible 351 4-Speed made $30,000 and again $24,750, versus $20,000 reserve-not-met for the automatic 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 Convertible. EddieNap on the $24,750 car: 'This looks like very short money for a ragtop, being a four-speed/traction lok/heavy duty suspension car.'
Compare 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7 at $20,300 and 302-Powered 1968 Mercury Cougar 5-Speed at $47,000 against No Reserve: 1971 Mercury Cougar XR-7 Convertible at $16,300 and $14,750, 1974 Mercury Cougar XR-7 at $11,000, No Reserve: 1979 Mercury Cougar XR-7 at $6,500, and No Reserve: 31k-Mile 1984 Mercury Cougar 5.0 at $3,900. pbf777 on 42-Years-Owned 1971 Mercury Cougar XR-7 Convertible: 'the Mercury Cougars, and particularly this series just don't garner the appreciation that they should.'
1968 Mercury Cougar 7-Litre GT-E — one of only 394 GT-Es — failed to meet reserve at $76,000 purely on drivetrain provenance. Seller: 'Replaced with a period correct engine and transmission.' 2FeCats afterward: 'this car deserves 6 figures... Wouldn't let it spend coin even with date coded one.' By contrast 1968 Mercury Cougar XR7-G Hertz cleared $100,000 with claimed matching numbers — though even there the block VIN stamp was never photographed despite requests from MRPRO, ericisback and XR7GRegistrar.
302-Powered 1968 Mercury Cougar 5-Speed, a standard (non-XR-7) hardtop with a T5 swap, Vintage Air and a rebuilt 306, made $47,000 — avidude: 'Seller did well on this one. Ive never seen a small block standard bring this kind of money.' 428-Powered 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7 4-Speed made $58,000 as a GT-E clone. Modified 1970 Mercury Cougar Eliminator made $58,000. Execution quality is the gate: 1970 Mercury Cougar 351, an Eliminator-style clone with acknowledged door-gap problems, stalled at $16,000 reserve-not-met.
1973 Mercury Cougar XR-7 Convertible Q-Code 351 4-Speed came with a Deluxe Marti Report, a Lois Emminger report and a CCOA 71-73-351CJ registry entry, and 71-73Qcode confirmed 'only 18 confirm to exist in the cobra jet registry' — it made $37,000, an outlier for a 1973. Conversely 1969 Mercury Cougar Convertible M-Code 351 sold for $29,000 with badcatt flatly disputing the spec: 'without a Marti report, the original window sticker or the body buck tag I doubt it is really a GT handling package Cougar.' On 1971 Mercury Cougar Convertible, CarFoolLane pushed for a rush Marti; it went unordered and the car failed at $5,600.
Ozzybud on 428-Powered 1969 Mercury Cougar Eliminator (RNM $35,500): 'Too bad the interior was changed to black. Blue comfortweave seats would have been stunning and set it apart.' Cougar_Guy's post-mortem on 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 Convertible (RNM $20,000): 'The tweed seats and door pads, trunk rack and boring color (which surprisingly was a color change) may have held the price down somewhat.' 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 351, repainted black from Light Ivory with green re-trim, brought only $9,100.
1969 Mercury Cougar Convertible 351 (RNM $26,266) — Rhindieh [SELLER]: 'I would honestly rather keep the car than respond to endless inquiries from guys in jeans shorts.' 306-Powered 1967 Mercury Cougar Fastback Conversion (RNM $28,957) — Ranchero65: 'Bidding seems non-proportional to the positive comments... Probably a result of @seller non-participation.' Even the winning $58,000 Modified 1970 Mercury Cougar Eliminator drew Henna30's warning: 'you might want to chime in and answer some of the questions... if you want it to bring all the money!'
One-Family-Owned 1968 Mercury Cougar (a base 302 hardtop) made $20,250 on the strength of 56 years in one family, a 100-point CCOA East Coast Nationals score and a window sticker. 44-Years-Owned 1967 Mercury Cougar XR-7 made $31,250 despite a rolled-over odometer and disclosed rust bubbles under the rear-window vinyl. One-Family-Owned 1969 Mercury Cougar Eliminator 351 made $39,500 on its original dealer invoice alone.
| Spec | Median | Cars |
|---|---|---|
| Manual | $42,000 | 6 |
| Automatic | $15,126 | 36 |
| Colour | Median | Cars |
|---|---|---|
| Red | $23,000 | 3 |
| Blue | $16,300 | 3 |
| White | $13,500 | 5 |
| Black | $11,500 | 3 |
| Oxford White | $5,500 | 5 |
Ozzybud on 1969 Mercury Cougar Convertible 351: 'I see rust in the upper fender apron overlaps. That means there is likely a lot more rust elsewhere, including torque boxes and frame rails' — Cobrajetter added 'This is a project car... The paint job is abysmal. Hard pass.' That car died at $6,000. Jaguarman on 1968 Mercury Cougar: 'I'd hate to see what's going on under that vinyl roof'; Catron: 'Looks like Rust Bubbles under Vinyl Top' — RNM $9,100. cheeser64 on No Reserve: 1967 Mercury Cougar Dan Gurney Special found 'floor pan holes... jagged' in pics 155-157 while the seller was still calling it a 'rust-free car'. On the positive side, funkaholik on 1968 Mercury Cougar: 'it's frankly shocking to see a Cougar or Mustang of this vintage where the frame rails have no jacking dents and the front strut bar mounts aren't mangled' — which tells you what the norm is.
Check: Get the car on a lift and photograph torque boxes, frame rails, floor pans, rear-window channel and the overlaps where the front fender aprons meet the shock towers. Pull carpet at the front footwells. If there is a vinyl roof, assume rust beneath it until proven otherwise. Magnet the lower quarters, rockers and door bottoms; ask for paint-meter readings.
Eliminator on 1969 Mercury Cougar Eliminator 351: 'Cougars are pretty notorious for vacuum leaks, especially with the headlight doors. Pretty easy to resolve.' Seller confirmed 'Lights covers hold for a few hours but not over night.' Same complaint on 1969 Mercury Cougar Convertible M-Code 351 and, in reverse, on 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 428 Cobra Jet Ram Air Convertible where seller jsv argued factory design only required hours of hold. Alignment: on 1968 Mercury Cougar XR7-G Hertz, cliffbissonnette and rm23 both flagged headlight doors and fender fit 'for a complete restoration the sheet metal should lineup', and Don Rush noted a $7, seven-minute correction kit exists.
Check: Run the doors open and closed repeatedly, then leave the car overnight and see whether the doors have crept open. Budget for an actuator/reservoir/hose overhaul. Check door-to-grille flushness in daylight — misalignment is adjustable but tedious.
1968 Mercury Cougar 7-Litre GT-E failed at $76,000 after the seller confirmed the 427 and transmission are 'period correct but NOT matching numbers'; jsv also questioned the block casting reading. MRPRO's disclosure on 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 428 Cobra Jet Ram Air is the most instructive in the whole dataset: the original R-code block cracked, a replacement 'was blown up by the bodyshop', and the current third block 'was horribly VIN stamped from the factory... and essentially unreadable. I had Marti try to find what the block came from several times... Still a mystery.' On 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 428 Cobra Jet Ram Air Convertible ($78,000) the block is 'believed to be warranty replacement with no vin stamped on back'. On the $100,000 1968 Mercury Cougar XR7-G Hertz, ericisback pressed that the engine VIN stamp 'is bedrock of authenticating drivetrain for value purposes' and never got the photo.
Check: Demand a clear photograph of the block VIN stamp at the rear of the block (standard from 1968), plus casting date codes, before you bid. Cross-reference against the Marti Report. On CJ cars look for the 'C-scratch' on the reinforced block. Assume a car with no stamp photo is non-original and price it accordingly.
1968 Mercury Cougar 302 showed 7,000 miles while the owners reported 50k driven since 2008; 44-Years-Owned 1967 Mercury Cougar XR-7 showed 21,000 with the seller stating he had driven over 100k; 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 428 Cobra Jet Ram Air Convertible showed 11,000 and made $78,000 with 'total mileage unknown'. Jtrnt247 on No Reserve: 1971 Mercury Cougar XR-7 Convertible: '99k on a five digit. Could be 99k, could be 199k. Any idea?' — no documentation was produced. On 1969 Mercury Cougar Convertible 351 the odometer 'stopped at 48k for a period and was recently repaired'.
Check: Treat any 1967-73 indicated mileage as unverified unless there is a continuous receipt trail. Look for wear evidence: pedal pads, steering wheel, seat frames, door-hinge slop. Check the title for an 'exempt' odometer brand. Do not pay a low-mileage premium on a first-generation car.
fiddlythings on 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 351 Convertible: '"AC needs a recharge" is like "ran when parked." What do you know of the existing system?' — the seller had left it uncharged through a full engine rebuild. Non-functional or weak A/C also disclosed on No Reserve: 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7, 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 351, No Reserve: 1971 Mercury Cougar XR-7 Convertible, 1986 CMC Tiffany Classic Coupe, One-Family-Owned 1968 Mercury Cougar, and 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 428 Cobra Jet Ram Air Convertible ('blows cool, but not cold'). On 1971 Mercury Cougar Convertible the compressor was simply ripped out — joeveto: 'I never understand ripping the compressor out of a car. To what gain?'
Check: Insist on a measured vent temperature, not a 'blows cool' claim. Establish whether the system is R12 or converted, whether the compressor turns, and whether components were removed rather than disabled. A full correct-looking retrofit on a first-gen car is four figures.
On No Reserve: 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7 the seller confirmed 'The tachometer, temp and fuel gauge are all non operational. I have not tried to diagnose the issue.' Clock dead on 1969 Mercury Cougar Eliminator 351, 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7, 302-Powered 1968 Mercury Cougar 5-Speed, 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 and No Reserve: 1971 Mercury Cougar XR-7 Convertible. 70b302Cat explained the recurring horn failure on No Reserve: 1971 Mercury Cougar XR-7 Convertible: 'That is a "rim blow" steering wheel... As they age sometimes they only work at the bottom of the steering wheel.' Cheezhd on 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 351: 'The YouTube video shows only the inside light blinking, not all three.'
Check: Sit in the car with the ignition on and work every switch. Verify all three sequential taillight elements fire on each side (solid-state conversions are common and cheap). Squeeze the rim-blow wheel all the way round. Expect the clock to be dead.
MercfanDP on No Reserve: 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7: 'I've owned a similar '68 XR-7 for over 15 years. Also one Diamond Blue repaint 25 years old... the original timing chain failed at 72k, nylon-coated cam sprocket.' That car was at 87,000 indicated with no timing-set history and sold for $15,000. Note 42-Years-Owned 1971 Mercury Cougar XR-7 Convertible had its timing chain replaced in 2017 — evidence owners do address it.
Check: Ask when the timing set was last replaced. If there is no receipt and the car has 60k+ indicated miles on an original 289/302, budget the job as a condition of purchase — a stripped nylon sprocket will not warn you.
jsv on 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7: 'Air shocks in the rear end of a Cougar will eventually destroy the shock supports. Ask any Cougar guy... Tranny cooling lines to the radiator should be metal tubing and not rubber tubing- zip-tying them to the stabilizer bar is a risk for tearing them and leaving you stranded.' That car (302-Powered... no — 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7) had exactly those air shocks. drcougar on 1968 Mercury Cougar 302 gave detailed factory routing instructions because the PS hoses appeared to contact the exhaust manifold at full lock — a fire risk.
Check: Look under the rear for air shocks and inspect the upper shock mounts for tearing or cracking around the crossmember. Confirm transmission cooler lines are metal tubing, not rubber zip-tied to the sway bar. At full lock, check that power-steering hoses clear the exhaust manifold.
Javadog62, owner of a comparable car, on 35-Years-Owned 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7 GT 390: 'I still can't figure out why Mercury (Ford) would put a conventional rear end in a "torque monster" car like this. Mine has a 2.75 conventional and has zero traction when you get on it.' Multiple commenters flagged the same on 1968 Mercury Cougar 7-Litre GT-E ('Conventional' per Marti). On 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 with a claimed 500hp 390, gaymondlee: 'Im sure it's too fast for the brakes'; agtxr7 elsewhere: the 390 'will easily overwhelm the stock brakes and tire size... This a fast, mildly dangerous car if not taken seriously.'
Check: Decode the axle code on the Marti Report or door tag. If it is a conventional/open unit and you plan spirited use, factor a Traction-Lok or Truetrac install. On any car making real power, verify a front disc conversion and question drum-only cars hard.
pclancy on No Reserve: 35k-Mile 1997 Mercury Cougar XR7: 'Ages is the issue here, not mileage (which is very low). The original head gaskets were composite, and they degrade and become brittle over time. Sitting is harder on them than driving.' Mrhoppy concurred: 'if it's not needed now, due to the age of the car, it will be needed in the near future.' The seller had no replacement records.
Check: Cold-start video, coolant condition, oil for coolant intrusion, overflow tank for exhaust gas. Ask for any head-gasket receipt. Treat a low-mileage, long-stored example as more at risk, not less.
keith_k on No Reserve: 16k-Mile 1980 Mercury Cougar XR-7: 'They are actually 390 mm wheels... Those may be very difficult to find replacements for. And normal 15" tires won't fit on those rims.' TheCritic on the same car's cluster: 'Digital gauge cluster was a nightmare. Had like 6 put in under warranty.' RCOY80 noted no video ever showed the speedometer lit.
Check: If the car wears 390mm TRX rims, confirm tire condition and price replacements before bidding — standard 15in tires do not fit. Verify the digital speedometer actually illuminates and reads in a driving video.
Decide which Cougar you are buying first; the bands barely overlap. 1967-70 driver-grade with disclosed rust, a colour change and a list of dead accessories: $9,000-$16,000 (1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 351 at $9,100, No Reserve: 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7 at $15,000, 1968 Mercury Cougar 302 at $15,750). A solid, honest, well-documented 1967-69 XR-7 hardtop you can enjoy without a project: $20,000-$25,000 (1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7 at $20,300, One-Family-Owned 1968 Mercury Cougar at $20,250, 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7 at $23,000, 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 at $24,250). Award-quality, single-family, fully papered small-block cars top out near $31,000-$41,250 (44-Years-Owned 1967 Mercury Cougar XR-7, 35-Years-Owned 1968 Mercury Cougar XR-7 GT 390). Convertibles: $24,750-$30,000 for a good 1969 XR-7, $29,000 for a non-XR-7 M-code, and $14,750-$20,000 for 1971-73 examples. Eliminators: $32,500 for an honest automatic with a rolled odometer, $39,500 for one-family original paint, and expect $35,500 to be refused on a 428-retrofit car with a changed interior. First-rate restomods: $47,000-$58,000, and the market genuinely pays it when the build is documented. Documented 428 CJ Ram Air, GT-E or XR7-G: $69,500-$100,000, with a matching-numbers CJ convertible plausibly over $100,000 — but note 1969 Mercury Cougar XR-7 428 Cobra Jet Ram Air Convertible was refused at $95,000 and 1968 Mercury Cougar 7-Litre GT-E at $76,000, so six figures is not automatic. 1974-80 survivors: $6,500-$12,000, with 31k-mile one-owner cars capable of double that at no reserve. 1989 supercharged MN12 XR-7: $4,400-$7,600 — the cheapest interesting car in the marque. 1994-97: $6,200-$7,500. CMC Tiffany conversions: $12,000-$13,500.

The model's ceiling for a non-CJ car: one of 188 Hertz Rent-A-Racers of 619 XR7-Gs, MCACN Concours Gold, first US production car with a factory power sunroof, ~1,900 restoration hours. Still landed at roughly half the seller's claimed $200k+ investment, and no engine block VIN stamp photo was ever produced despite three commenters asking.

1 of 96, ~32 known to the registry, complete ownership file back to the 12 March 1969 delivery, 1989 refurbishment by Kevin Marti himself. Even so jsv (the winning bidder) documented a non-original carburettor and distributor and 1967-68 wheels — the market paid up for paperwork and rarity, not correctness.

The clearest single data point on numbers-matching. One of just 394 GT-Es and it still failed to sell, because the 427 and transmission are period-correct replacements. 2FeCats: 'this car deserves 6 figures... Wouldn't let it spend coin even with date coded one.' Bidding flatlined for the final four hours.

A base, non-XR-7 hardtop with 99,000 miles that made near-Eliminator money on execution alone — T5 conversion, 306ci rebuild, Vintage Air, rebuilt suspension, step-by-step build photography and a cold-start video. avidude: 'Ive never seen a small block standard bring this kind of money.'

A malaise-era XR-7 that made big-block-adjacent money at no reserve on 31k miles, one-owner provenance and the 'Midnight Cat' colour combination. The same car came back 14 months later as 1978 Mercury Cougar XR-7 and failed to meet reserve at $9,500 with an unresponsive seller — a $12k round-trip loss and the sharpest warning in this dataset about no-reserve overshoot.

A 50k-mile, clean-Carfax supercharged MN12 for less than a set of wheels. Fstcoup: 'a really nice, honest example that unfortunately will not get the love it deserves'; RMQ333: 'Practically given away.' The floor of the Cougar market, and arguably the best value in it.

A genuine M-code 1969 XR-7 for $9,100 — reserve dropped late. Rust and filler on the driver's rear quarter, black repaint over Light Ivory, dead A/C, cracked tires. 1940FordCOE called it fairly: 'too much lingering rust to justify putting much money into it', while bigchachu called it 'a steal'. Both are right; that is what the bottom of the 1967-70 market buys.
The rear body section of a 1968 XR7-G, wired for working sequential taillights, sold for more than a running 1984 Cougar 5.0. Included here because it sits in the same statistical bucket and skews any naive read of the data — and because it shows how much XR7-G trim alone is worth.
The Cougar rewards the buyer who does the documentation work, because the market here prices paper as heavily as metal. If you want a usable 1960s American coupe with better trim and less ubiquity than a Mustang, a documented 1967-69 XR-7 at $20,000-$25,000 is one of the better propositions in the classic market right now — just budget rust inspection and a full pass through the vacuum and electrical systems before you bid. If you want an investment, only the documented, VIN-verified 428 CJ / GT-E / XR7-G / Eliminator cars have shown real appreciation, and the GT-E failure at $76,000 proves that a non-original block caps you well short of six figures no matter how rare the badge. Restomods work if — and only if — the build is receipted, dynoed and shaken down. And the standout value play is the 1989 supercharged XR-7: 50k miles, 315 lb-ft, independent rear suspension, four-wheel discs, $4,400-$5,700. Walk away from any car whose seller will not answer questions in the thread; on this model that behaviour costs 15-30% and it is priced in for a reason.
These are patterns, not findings. A public auction record cannot show intent, and everything below has ordinary explanations — specialists and dealers bid on many cars of one model, enthusiasts run up cars they end up losing, and new accounts are usually just new. Read them as places to look closely, not as accusations.
Common for a dealer or marque specialist who follows one seller's inventory. It is also the shape worth checking, so here are the listings:
Common for a dealer or marque specialist who follows one seller's inventory. It is also the shape worth checking, so here are the listings:
watch Closing bids came almost entirely from accounts with no posting history — 8 of 10 bids in the final 15 minutes (80%) came from accounts with under 25 lifetime likes (TheLot, Fasst1). The typical auction for this model runs 50%, so this one is an outlier. Note the measure is weak — likes come from commenting, so a long-time bidder who never posts also scores zero.
watch Closing bids came almost entirely from accounts with no posting history — 6 of 6 bids in the final 15 minutes (100%) came from accounts with under 25 lifetime likes (oneronin, Help4Mac, Auto_Guy). The typical auction for this model runs 50%, so this one is an outlier. Note the measure is weak — likes come from commenting, so a long-time bidder who never posts also scores zero.
watch Closing bids came almost entirely from accounts with no posting history — 9 of 11 bids in the final 15 minutes (82%) came from accounts with under 25 lifetime likes (Ritter7, Lookin4aFunVintageRagtop). The typical auction for this model runs 50%, so this one is an outlier. Note the measure is weak — likes come from commenting, so a long-time bidder who never posts also scores zero.
watch Closing bids came almost entirely from accounts with no posting history — 6 of 7 bids in the final 15 minutes (86%) came from accounts with under 25 lifetime likes (chrislinguist, Jav88, slim95). The typical auction for this model runs 50%, so this one is an outlier. Note the measure is weak — likes come from commenting, so a long-time bidder who never posts also scores zero.
notice Price set by two accounts trading bids — 60% of the ladder is the same two accounts alternating. This is what a genuine duel looks like too — it only matters alongside another signal.
watch Closing bids came almost entirely from accounts with no posting history — 11 of 11 bids in the final 15 minutes (100%) came from accounts with under 25 lifetime likes (MichaelJHarrison, Stopsign79, bryguy74). The typical auction for this model runs 50%, so this one is an outlier. Note the measure is weak — likes come from commenting, so a long-time bidder who never posts also scores zero.
watch Underbidder placed much of the ladder — Cliff1018 placed 3 of 8 bids (38%) and did not win. Enthusiastic losing bidders are common; a very high share is still worth reading the thread for.
watch Underbidder placed much of the ladder — Kurturban00 placed 14 of 30 bids (47%) and did not win. Enthusiastic losing bidders are common; a very high share is still worth reading the thread for.
watch Closing bids came almost entirely from accounts with no posting history — 18 of 18 bids in the final 15 minutes (100%) came from accounts with under 25 lifetime likes (Kurturban00, beanstalk). The typical auction for this model runs 50%, so this one is an outlier. Note the measure is weak — likes come from commenting, so a long-time bidder who never posts also scores zero.
notice Price set by two accounts trading bids — 79% of the ladder is the same two accounts alternating. This is what a genuine duel looks like too — it only matters alongside another signal.


























































